I like Scotland’s chances tonight against a Georgia-outfit with nothing to play for. The hosts have gained three points of 18 possible, and that was against minnows Gibraltar.

Georgia are not very competitive when it comes to these final games of the qualification. Since 2010, they’ve lost 10 of 12 games played from september to november (final three games of the qualification) with goals only against Malta and Greece. The squad looks average at best with players from 14 different leagues all around Europe and it’s hard to see the squad very motivated for this one – they should aim for a moral-boosting victory against Gibraltar at home in Round 9 and a big game in Germany to end the group stage in Round 10.

The Scots have played reasonably well in the first six games, losing only once – a narrow 2-1 defeat in Germany – leaving them with great oppertunity to claim at least a play-off spot in Group D.

Around 1,95 – 2,00 on the away win is quite satisfying, but I’d rather stick to a goal scorer bet. Steven Fletcher is by far Scotlands biggest threat this season with a huge 18 finishes in six games – twice as many as top scorer Shaun Maloney.

I see Fletcher score at least every third game under the current circumstances and have no problem to spot obvious value here.

Euro 2016 Qualifiers
True odds: 2,85