This is a bit of a long shot, but you miss 100 % of the shots you never take 🙂

Market is really moving against Belenenses in these hours. The portuguese outfit started in 1,60 when the markets opened, but has now moved way over 2,00 with Bet365 leading the market with 2,30.

I think it’s quite an over reaction. Yes, Belenenses lost their leading scorers, Deyverson and Pele, and yes, Belenenses haven’t played any competitive games this season. Yes, Belenenses is clearly lacking European experience, but it’s not like Swedish teams have loads of success in Europa League the last couple of seasons.

Anyway, it’s not because I want to talk up a bet on the home side. I just gotta say that Gothenburg is lacking fire power as well with MVP Lasse Vibe (A well known name to the Danes) off for Brentford. Gothenburg averaged 2,08 goals per game WITH Vibe last season in 26 games but only 1,00 goals per game in four occasions WITHOUT Vibe.

This season Vibe played all 16 games and scored six goals before leaving for Brentford, and in the first game without the Danish international, Gothenburg went on to lose 0-1 home to lowly Falkenberg.

Gothenburg has quite some European experience with ten matches in Europa League since the start of the 2013/14-season. A staggering FOUR of these have ended with goalless draws and three of these have been in 1st Leg matches.

Of course, the 1,55 for under 2,5 goals is a much safer solution, but 8,00 for the goalless draw should be at least a point (1,00) too high in my opinion. Bet365 with more logical 6,50 – also my true odds.

Europa League Qualifiers
True odds: 6,50.