Hi all,

I like several of the spots in the Europa League’s First Round this Saturday. The gap between the favorites and the underdogs is either a lot bigger or a lot smaller than the market is indicating.

One of the spots I really like is 1,16-favorites Slovan Bratislava to win without conceding against Gibraltar-minnows College Europa.

Slovan Bratislava got pretty banged up in the Europa League Group Stage last year with six defeats and a score of 1-20, but they actually played better than the score indicates in several of the matches. This season they bolstered their squad with several interesting signings like promising, young, Serbian defender Boris Sekulic and Sparta Prague-defender Jakub Podany.

In the pre-season friendlies, Slovan has looked sharp with four wins, a draw and a defeat in six matches. Their preparation for their European adventure started already in the mid-start of June, so I expect them to be able to grind Europa down, especially when it comes to stamina.

The Gibraltar outfit came second after champions Lincoln Red Imps last year. In three H2H-meetings, College Europa only got one point and a score of 2-10. That clearly shows how far the gap is between best and second best in the minor European leagues. Furthermore, 35 of Europas 42 season goals were scored against bottom 4-sides in the table. They only registred 19 players for their European campaign – 11 of these 21 or younger and in the other end defender Alberto Merino, aged 40!

It’s hard to see where Europas should get their goals from. Four regocnized strikers are in the squad, but two of them are teenagers without any senior experience. Argentine topscorer Cristian Toncheff scored 14 goals last season but turned 33 earlier this year and should not be a very big obstacle for the guests’ back line.

I see something like 0-2 or 0-3 here. Europa is playing no artificial turf which is the only X-factor I see for the game here, but I would be really surprised to see the hosts score here.

Europa League Qualification
Fair odds: 1,65.